Prince William 2023 Situation Analysis Report

Introduction

VCE-Prince William is committed to providing researched based programming that meets the needs of our community. In a locality of over half a million people, we are the largest unit in the state with 28 staff positions. Our programs have been tailored to meet the gaps in programs and services for Prince William County.

For the 2023 situation analysis, we did not use the state needs assessment survey tool to determine priorities for the unit. We have found that it is hard to get statistically significant responses to a survey in a community so large. Many people in the community still don’t know about VCE and the services we offer to be able to respond to a survey asking how much effort VCE should spend on the following issues. In the past four situation analyses, a survey tool was used, and the top needs identified in the survey tool were ones that VCE could only impact indirectly.

The programs the unit offers, along with the goals and measures reported to Prince William County are based on needs we have identified through partnerships with the agencies in Prince William County, the Cities of Manassas and Manassas Park, community partners, and grantors over the past 30 years. Additional programming that VCE offers statewide varies locally due to availability of resources, such as funding or staffing, or because it may be a duplication of effort as another county agency, non-profit or community partner already provides the service. Currently the unit receives federal, state, and local funds. Additional grants and transfers have been obtained that are specific to certain programs and activities, leaving little room for additional capacity to take on new programs.

• Prince William County (PWC) and revenue transfers from the cities of Manassas and Manassas Park
• Community Development Block Grant, Prince William Office of Housing and Community Development
• Stormwater fee funds transfer, Watershed Management Branch, PWC Public Works
• Promoting Safe and Stable Families, from Virginia Department of Social Services, through the PWC Department of Social Services.
• Skill Source of Northen Virginia, United Way, National Capital Region, Truist bank.
• US Department of Housing and Urban Development
• Virginia Housing

The current Virginia Cooperative Extension Prince William County budget document shows current local funding, local staffing, program measures and targets: https://www.pwcva.gov/assets/2023-02/pFY24--08--HS06--Virginia_Cooperative_Extension.pdf

As we continue to market our programs, we seek opportunities for outreach and education to raise awareness of the services we provide and seek feedback through one-on-one interviews, and by working closely with our grantors. We continue to also engage in conversations with partner agencies to ensure current programs are satisfying community needs as well. Due to the number of Spanish speaking individuals in the community, our FCS programs are offered in Spanish and English.

Unit Profile

The service area of the Prince William Unit includes Prince William County, and the Cities of Manassas and Manassas Park. Prince William County is in Northern Virginia approximately 35 miles southwest of Washington, DC. It is bounded on the north by Fairfax and Loudoun Counties, on the east by the Potomac River (Maryland), on the south by Stafford County and on the west by Fauquier County.

Prince William County encompasses a total area of approximately 348 square miles (222,615 acres) and a total land area of 338 square miles. The City of Manassas Park is 3.03 square miles. The City of Manassas is 10 square miles. Both cities are central to the county and border each other and the county.

The combined area of Prince William County and the independent cities is approximately 360 square miles (230,594 acres). Federal land accounts for approximately 41,500 acres or 18.6% of the total area, and includes Quantico Marine Corps Base, Manassas National Battlefield Park and Prince William Forest Park. Prince William County includes four incorporated towns and fourteen census designated places (CDPs), that are un-incorporated population centers designated by the U.S. Census Bureau for data collection purposes. The Towns are Haymarket, Occoquan, Dumfries, and Quantico

Population data

Census data estimates the current population of Prince William County as of September 2023, is 491,693 while population for the Greater Prince William Area (including the Cities of Manassas and Manassas Park) is, based on the most currently available data 546,288. See Table 2. The population of the Greater Prince William area continues to grow and since the 2010 census there was an increase of almost 19% and since 2000, a 75% increase. See Table 3. The 2022 Census population estimates show that Prince William County is the second most populous jurisdiction in Virginia. Almost 26% of the Greater Prince William Area’s population is under 18 and 11% of the population is over 65. Regional population projections anticipate a 35-40% increase for the Greater Prince William region by 2040.

In recent decades, the population of the Greater Prince William Area increasingly has become racially and ethnically diverse. The 2020 Census reaffirms that the Greater Prince William Area is a “minority-majority” community, meaning that less than half of the population is reported as non-Hispanic and of one race -- White. In the Greater Prince William Area, 35.6% of the population are persons of Hispanic origin,17.3% identifying as Black and 9.9% identifying as Asian. Prince William County was rated as the 10th county with the highest diversity in the county in 2020. See figure 2.

Summarizing key points in the Table 1 below, as compared to Virginia, the Greater Prince William region exceeds the number of households who speak another language other than English, percentages of those who were born outside of the US, and the population who are not US citizens. Median income is higher in the Greater Prince William region than that of the entire state of VA, and median rent exceeds the state average as well.

Census data (2020) indicates that 43.7% of County residents 25 and older have a bachelor’s degree or higher; 35.4% of Manassas City and 25% of Manassas Park residents have their bachelor’s degrees. Median income rose from the last report with an average of $120,398 in the County to $110,559 in Manassas, with $91,673 in Manassas Park. Rates of poverty fell since last reported with 5.3% in the County, 4.7% in Manassas and 5.1% in Manassas Park.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Profiles: Census 2020.

Education

There are three school systems serving the Greater Prince William area, Prince William County Schools, Manassas City Public Schools and Manassas Park City Schools. There are 107 schools including elementary, middle, high and combined schools with a total enrollment of 102,325 students. Chronic absenteeism and truancy are issues local schools continue to face. For the 2022-2023 school year, 20% of Prince William County students missed more than 10% of the school year; 26% of City of Manassas Students missed more than 10% of the year, and 33.2% of Manassas Park students missed more than 10% of the school year.

High school graduation rate averages around 92% between the three school systems with Prince William averaging the highest at 93.1% and Manassas City at 92.7% and 91.5% of Manassas Park Students graduate with advanced or standard diplomas or obtain their GED or equivalent.

Income and Employment

According to the Census Bureau’s 2020 American Community Survey, the 2023 median household income in Prince William was $120,398. They reported that the poverty rate was 3.2% in 2003, well below the Virginia rate of 9% and the US rate of 12.7%. Prince William County continues to lead the area in median family income, however, for 1999, Manassas Park edged out the City of Manassas for the first time. The Prince William area significantly exceeds the state level for median family income.

Unemployment rates in the Greater Prince William region are currently low- 2.7% and the poverty rate is low (5.8% for PWC and 9.9% for VA). However, Greater Prince William does identify an average of 5.3% of the population living at or below the federal poverty level.

Homelessness

The Prince William Times cited below, stated that homelessness was up 35% in 2023 as COVID support ended. The 2023 Point in Time (PIT) count found 326 residents experiencing homelessness, up from 2022. This year, there are no unsheltered homeless children in the county, but there were 40 families with children staying in shelters or transitional housing. The County also increased the number of shelter beds in 2023 to 328. One of the County’s buildings used a portion of the space to create more shelter space. The 2023 PIT survey identified that homelessness disproportionately affects the county’s minority and disabled residents. 56% of residents experiencing homelessness are Black. 36% of unhoused county residents have some kind of disabling condition. 36% of unhoused county residents have some kind of disabling condition. 30% of the homeless residents are considered “medically fragile.”

Agriculture

As we await the newest data of the Census of Agriculture, we can only refer to the 2017 data which was used in our last situation analysis. The Cities of Manassas and Manassas Park no longer have properties zoned as agriculture. With that new data, we anticipate a significant drop in the number of acres zoned as A-1 agriculture and the number of farms in production as several producers in Prince William County have sold their land for development.

As of the Census of Agriculture in 2017, the county had lost a small number of farms and acres of farmland, with only 304 farms covering 22,874 acres. Almost 62% of the agricultural acreage in the county is devoted to cropland spread over 192 farms. Much of the animal agriculture in the county is centered around beef cattle. Over half of the farms are generating less than $2500 in sales. While almost a quarter of the farms generate about $2500-10,000 in sales.

The Greater Prince William Area is home to a growing number of breweries, wineries and distilleries. Crops grown in Prince William in no particular order are blueberries, broccoli, carrots, cattle, cauliflower, chickens, corn for eating, grain and silage, cucumbers, , Christmas trees, cut flowers, ducks, eggplant, equine (horses, ponies, mules, donkeys), goats, grapes, hay, herbs, hogs, honey, hops, lettuce, melons, onions, peaches, pears, persimmons, potatoes, peppers, eggs, pumpkins, raspberries, , sheep, sod, sorghum, soybeans, squash, strawberries, sunflowers, sweet potatoes, tomatoes, turkeys, wool, and wheat. There has been a recent uptick in local farmstands with a few of the producers with 10 acre farm-ettes producing cut flowers, eggs, baked goods, sweets, eggs, poultry, beef, pork and sausages for sale.

Greater Prince William Community Health Assessment Data

The Community Healthcare Coalition of Greater Prince William (CHCGPW) published the 2019 Greater Prince William Community Health Assessment to help guide the Community Health Improvement Plan. The report includes an update in 2023. The original assessment identified the top health issues areas and updated the trends as of 2023.

Chronic conditions: In the Greater Prince William Area, 9.3% of individuals have diabetes (Virginia Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey, 2020 estimates). The percentage of adults who have been told they have high blood pressure is 29.2% in Manassas City, 28.4% in Manassas Park City, and 29.3% in Prince William County (CDC PLACES, 2019). The percentage of adults ages 18 and older who have had their blood cholesterol checked within the past five years and have been told by a health care provider that it is high is 29.7% in Manassas City, 28.8% in Manassas Park City, and 28.7% in Prince William County (CDC PLACES, 2019).

Injury and violence: In the Greater Prince William Area, 90.2% of people reported using a seat belt when driving (Virginia Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey, 2017 estimates). Recent crime reports show that the overall crime rate has been on the rise in Prince William County, crimes against persons (homicide, sex offenses, assault, kidnapping) increased from the prior year and assault on police officers rose 23.0% (Annual Report, Prince William County Police Department, 2022). Injury and violence are a leading cause of death and disability across the U.S. For example, firearms are the leading cause of death in children under 19 nationally (CDC Wonder, 2021).

Economic stability: In Prince William County, the percent of Hispanic children (14.4%) and Black children (6.5%) living below the poverty level is higher than that of white children (2.5%) (U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2017-2021 5-year estimates). While the median household income in Prince William County is high overall ($113,831), median household income for Hispanic residents ($91,451) is more than $33,000 less than that of white, non-Hispanic residents ($124,860) (U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2017-2021 5-year estimates).

Mental health: The percentage of adults who reported that their mental health was not good 14 or more days in the past month is 13.2% in Manassas City, 13.5% in Manassas Park City, and 12.8% in Prince William County (CDC PLACES, 2020).

Educational opportunities: Hispanic/Latino students had lower on-time graduation rates in 2022 in Manassas City, Manassas Park, and Prince William County compared to their white counterparts, as well as a lower percentage receiving an advanced studies diploma where both standard credits and verified credits were completed (Virginia Department of Education, 2021-2022 estimates).

Neighborhood and built environment: In Prince William County, 46.56% of renters spend 30% or more of household income on rent, 51.59% in Manassas City, and 58.94% in Manassas Park City (U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2017-2021 5-year estimates). In Prince William County, the mean commute time to work is 39.2 minutes, 34.7 minutes in Manassas City, and 41.5 minutes in Manassas Park City (U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2017-2021 5-year estimates). During summer of 2022, the Community Health Care Coalition Greater Prince William (CHCGPW) elected to utilize the Prince William Health District (PWHD) Community Health Workers (CHW) and the Medical Reserve Corps (MRC) to survey community members during Prince William Health District outreach events. The intention was to collect primary data and elicit input from vulnerable populations who may not otherwise have opportunities to contribute to community planning initiatives. Much of the qualitative data themes revealed a direct connection to the coalition social determinants of health initiatives, including “Neighborhood and Built Environment” and “Education”. With this data, the coalition’s Neighborhood and Built Environment steering committee developed projects to address safe streets/pedestrian safety. (Community Healthcare Coalition of Greater Prince William, Community Survey on the Neighborhood, Preliminary Results 2022)

Healthcare access and delivery systems: Prince William County ranks 5th in health insurance coverage out of the 5 Northern Virginia jurisdictions, with 89.5% health insurance coverage in comparison to 92.1% in Virginia (U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2017-2021 5-year estimates).

Obesity, nutrition and physical activity: The percentage of adults (ages 20 and up) who did not participate in any leisure-time activities during the past month is 19.7% in Manassas City, 19.2% in Manassas Park City, and 21.4% in Prince William County (CDC USDSS, 2019). In the Greater Prince William Area, it is reported 63.5% of individuals are overweight or obese (Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey, 2020 estimates).

Infectious diseases and delivery systems: In 2021, the Northern Region was again highest among all VA regions for cases of newly diagnosed tuberculosis, representing nearly 64% (103) of the state’s total cases (160) (Virginia Department of Health, Division of Tuberculosis and Newcomer Health, 2021 estimates). The 2021 case rate in PWHD (4.1 per 100,000) continued to remain above both the state (1.9 per 100,000) and national rates (2.4 per 100,000) (Virginia Department of Health, Division of Tuberculosis and Newcomer Health, 2021 estimates). Between April 2020 and April 2023, PWHD experienced 145,401 cumulative COVID-19 cases, 4,077 COVID-19 hospitalizations, and 949 COVID-19 deaths (Virginia Department of Health Open Data Portal, COVID-19 Public Use Dataset).

Tobacco and substance abuse: In the Greater Prince William Area, 8.6% of community members use tobacco products (cigarettes, chewing tobacco, snuff, or snus) every day or some days, and 15.4% report binge drinking (Virginia Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey, 2021 estimates). The death rate due for all-drug related overdose deaths is higher in Manassas City (48.9) compared to Prince William County (18.7) and Manassas Park City (22.2) (Virginia Department of Health, Office of the Chief Medical Examiner, 2021 estimates, rate per 100,000 population).

Greater Prince William Community Health Assessment
https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/24/2021/02/10.19.23-CHA.pdf

Prince William County Strategic Plan

Prince William County’s Strategic Plan for 2021-2024 identified seven focus or goal areas with objectives, action strategies, and key performance indicators. This plan will be used to guide decisions about resource allocations in the FY2022 through FY2025 annual budgets.

1. Health, Wellbeing, & Human Services
2. Safe & Secure Community
3. Resilient Economy
4. Quality Education & Workforce Development
5. Environmental Conservation
6. Sustainable Growth
7. Transportation & Mobility

You can view the Prince William County Strategic Plan for 2021-2024
https://www.pwcva.gov/assets/2021-10/2021-2024_Strategic_Plan-FINAL_0.pdf

Community and Resident Perspectives

From July of 2022 through November 2023, VCE Prince William has participated in over 40 outreach and educational community events. Invitations were accepted from several individual schools to participate in community fairs, PWC Re-entry Council, the African American Heritage Festival, the Latino Festival, a Mental Awareness event, Leesylvania Park, a Prince Wiliam County Schools (PWCS) Family Camp, CASA, PWC GovFest, Mount Olive Baptist Church re-entry event, Life Church Health Fair, Chinn Park Library Fall Festival, Stop the Violence event, Manassas Park Community Day, City of Manassas Bee Festival, Omni Ride Senior Summit are just some of the events we participated in. The majority of people passing by our table were asked if they knew about Virginia Cooperative Extension, and many weren’t familiar with VCE or the local unit.

Our programs appeal to many different populations in the community. As we continue to market our programs, we seek new opportunities for outreach and education to underserved audiences to raise awareness of the services we provide. We continue to also engage in conversations with partner agencies to ensure current programs are satisfying community needs as well.

In 2017, our FCS Agent retired. Our FCS Agent offered ServeSafe training for food handlers, nutrition, and chronic disease educational programs. VCE was asked by our County Executive at the time that this programming was duplicative. Regardless of feedback from the community, we stopped offering these programs. In 2010, as part of the budgeting process, we were also told to discontinue our Living Apart Parenting Together curriculum as it was duplicative because it was offered by the community colleges. We continue to receive requests for this program from our community partners and the public.

Community Issues

The 2023 Situation Analysis was conducted in a different manner from past efforts. For past Situation Analyses, we have asked the community for feedback and reported several key areas that are important to the community. You will see below that in past surveys, we received feedback about services that VCE didn’t directly address. Each time our unit has done a situation analysis survey, some of the topics that rise to the top as important issues or needs in the community are for programs we currently offer or are issues we only indirectly impact.

2004 Situation Analysis results

A survey and focus groups, key informant interviews were conducted. There were 238 responses to the survey, two focus groups held, and key informant interviews conducted by staff and ELC with 10 community leaders. The list below are the top-rated areas of concern (in order of priority). Issues that are bolded are ones the Prince William Unit programming addresses.

1. Affordable Housing (obtaining andm maintaining)
2. Transportation – Roads/Traffic
3. Transportation – Mass/Public
4. Diversity/Cultural Awareness
5. Services to Youth
6. Family Financial Management (debt, changing income, retirement prep)
7. Education
8. Human Services
9. Gang Activity
10. Efficient and Effective Government
11. Services for the Elderly
12. Parenting
13. Nutrition
14. Quality Development/Land Use

2008 Report of Analysis Results

A paper survey was conducted in 2008. There were 217 survey responses. After reviewing the numerical data, staff also looked at the anecdotal comments of the participants. All five of the issues identified on the survey focused on family stability, quality of life, and health of the community. They include:

• Health & Wellness Across the Lifespan including chronic disease prevention
• Life Skills, Leadership Skills, and Citizenship Skills
• Parenting/Child Development
• Money Management and Homeownership
• Environmental Education

These issues were captured in 2004 but there has been a shift in focus in several areas. In the Nutrition program area, the emphasis moved to chronic disease prevention. In the area of youth development, the focus has shifted from Youth Services to Life, Leadership, and Citizenship Skills. In 2004, the issue was affordable housing, in 2008, the concern is the foreclosure crisis. The issue of gang and youth violence was a priority in 2004, while in 2008 the focus is on the family stress created by the economic downturn. In 2004, Prince William was still focused on quality land development and use. In 2008, constituents had a larger need for environmental education that includes green practices that are cost effective.

As a result of this review, staff recommended to the ELC that the Prince William office of VCE continue with existing programming while focusing on ways to empower the community in this economic downturn. Because of the strong education base of VCE, there is still a valid need for our programs.

2013 Situation Analysis Results

There were 298 responses to the situation analysis survey. The top issues identified were:

Issue 1: Health and Wellness
Issue 2: Chronic Disease
Issue 3: At Risk Youth- bullying
Issue 4: Money Management: Stretching your Food Dollars, Affordable Housing, Buying and Maintaining a Home, Credit Repair
Issue 5: Environment Clean Drinking Water, Stream Pollution, Using Pesticides Safely, Lawn and Landscape Management
Issue 6: Life Skills

2019 Situation Analysis Results

In 2019, a total of 337 people responded to the situation analysis survey. 278 individuals responded to the online survey and 59 responded using the paper survey. Questions were asked differently this year, first about issues important to the individuals responding to the survey. Then respondents were asked about issues important to the community. Due to increased interest in online classes, respondents were asked how they like to receive information. The top 10 issues for each question are listed below in Table 5 and 6. And a list shows responses on how people want to receive information on these issues.

Responses to “How could Virginia Cooperative Extension Better Address your Needs”:

Provide Printed Material 42%

Provide Internet Informational Resources 63%

Provide Online Instructor Led Training 56%

Provide On-Demand Online Webinars 53%

Conduct Evening Classes on Related Topics 51%

Conduct Daytime Classes on Related Topics 23%

Provide Volunteers for Community Education 50%

In 2023, as part of the situation analyses dis cussion, staff brainstormed issues facing our community. Responses were listed as ones VCE could address, ones that we could address if we had more resources, and ones VCE could not address.

Issues VCE Prince William Addresses

Building financial literacy

Building savings
Setting monetary goals
Building credit
Helping families build a safety net
Business planning

Homeownership education

First time homebuyer education
Post purchase homeowner counseling
Avoiding foreclosure
Rental basics
Well owner education

Sustainable landscape management

Plant problem diagnosis
Lawn care and nutrient management
Human / wildlife conflict
Creating habitat
Invasives management
Composting

Improving water quality

Riparian buffer education
Fertilizer education
Proper tree planting, mulching
Safe pesticide use
Stormwater and erosion

Home food production

Vegetable gardening

Supporting local agriculture

Agricultural technical assistance
Traditional and alternative crop
Drought mitigation

Opportunities for Youth

STEM education
Leadership development
Effective public speaking
Equine management

Building entrepreneurship skills

Civic engagement
Life Skill Development
Helping kids stay at home alone safely
Embryology
Shooting sports education

Strengthening family relationships

Improved family communication
Anger management strategies
Family reunification
Stress management

Nutrition, Health and Wellness

Food preparation, stretching your food dollars, food safety, meal planning, exercise

Issues that could be new opportunities for the unit with additional resources

Sustainable home maintenance
Energy conservation
Co-parenting
Food safety training for food handlers
Food preservation
Nutrition
Curbside composting
Out of school time opportunities for youth

Issues facing locality that the Unit doesn’t currently address

Water quantity
Sustainable energy
Value of land
Human trafficking
Commercial development
Residential development
Affordable housing
Roads
Transportation
Healthcare
Land use around data centers/solar farms
Aging in place
Opioids/Fentanyl
Vaccinations
Commuting
Tutoring
Mental health
Substance abuse
Workforce development/career training

Future Programming to Address Community Issues

The Prince William Unit plans to address priority issues through the current programming. Parent Education will continue to serve the community, at risk youth and families by offering a series of classes targeted at improving family communication, listening and understanding emotions.

4-H Youth Development will continue to offer experiential learning opportunities for youth through project and community clubs, in-school and afterschool programs, and 4-H camps.

The Financial Education and Housing Counseling program will continue to offer educational classes and counseling that strengthen financial decision-making skills.

SNAP will continue to provide grant based educational modules for eligible individuals and families.

The Agriculture and Natural Resources program will continue to offer classes, clinics, the Healthy VA Lawn program, and training that help improve sustainability and water quality.

Staff will continue to seek opportunities to share information with others on VCE’s programs and services offered in the community. VCE will continue to make connections and seek outreach and education opportunities for underserved audiences.

References

Community Healthcare Coalition of Greater Prince William. “Greater Prince William Community Health Assessment” Last modified October 19, 2023. https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/24/2021/02/10.19.23-CHA.pdf

Sczerzenie, Anya. “Homelessness up 35% in Prince William County as COVID supports end.” Prince William Times Jul 28, 2023 https://www.princewilliamtimes.com/news/homelessness-up-35-in-prince-william-county-as-covid-supports-end/article_f3c41d8c-2d80-11ee-81dd-371e7a9a4aab.html

U.S. Census Bureau. QuickFacts Prince William County, Manassas and Manassas Park. U.S. Department of Commerce. Retrieved December 28, 2023 from https://www.census.gov/

U.S. Census Bureau. Profiles, City of Manassas. U.S. Department of Commerce. Retrieved December 28, 2023, from https://www.census.gov/

U.S. Census Bureau. Profiles, City of Manassas Park. U.S. Department of Commerce. Retrieved December 28, 2023, from https://www.census.gov/

U.S. Census Bureau. Profiles, Prince William County, Virginia. U.S. Department of Commerce. Retrieved December 28, 2023, from https://www.census.gov/

Virginia Cooperative Extension. “Situation Analysis Report: Prince William County, 2020” Retrieved, November 1, 2023. https://www.pubs.ext.vt.edu/VCE/VCE-596/VCE-596-82/VCE-1002-82.html
 

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